Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$36.59

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 98.4¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,171

Combined PnL+$305.66

Yes5 traders

Total Value$18.45

Total Shares1,676

Combined PnL-$342.26

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 85.9¢	$546.22	$625.51	+$79.29	49% 2612-2669 (5281)
Hyperlong	No	$222.93	$222.93	+$38.79	43% 234-315 (549)
macrosteaks	Noavg 87.5¢	$223.96	$165.5	+$28.22	55% 3330-2764 (6094)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 87.4¢	$546.92	$79.5	+$157.92	20% 2375-9305 (11680)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$40.11	$40.44	+$0.33	79% 11619-3056 (14675)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$11.02	$11.01	-$0.01	59% 10639-7310 (17949)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$177.25	$10.79	-$116.48	35% 17316-32015 (49331)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 83¢	$7.29	$7.17	+$1.12	48% 6843-7476 (14319)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.98	$5.98	+$0	27% 6132-16260 (22392)
GUHHHCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$67.2	$3.36	-$61.82	78% 880-250 (1130)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$69.52	$2.06	+$4.17	30% 2228-5296 (7524)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.64	$1.43	-$0.21	24% 293-907 (1200)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$598.2	$0.8	-$167.91	17% 1059-5131 (6190)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$546.22

Value

$625.51

PnL

+$79.29

Record

49%

2612-2669 (5281)

Hyperlong

Invested

$222.93

Value

$222.93

PnL

+$38.79

Record

43%

234-315 (549)

macrosteaks

Invested

$223.96

Value

$165.5

PnL

+$28.22

Record

55%

3330-2764 (6094)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$546.92

Value

$79.5

PnL

+$157.92

Record

20%

2375-9305 (11680)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$40.11

Value

$40.44

PnL

+$0.33

Record

79%

11619-3056 (14675)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

10639-7310 (17949)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.25

Value

$10.79

PnL

-$116.48

Record

35%

17316-32015 (49331)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.17

PnL

+$1.12

Record

48%

6843-7476 (14319)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

6132-16260 (22392)

GUHHHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.2

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$61.82

Record

78%

880-250 (1130)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.52

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$4.17

Record

30%

2228-5296 (7524)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.21

Record

24%

293-907 (1200)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$598.2

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$167.91

Record

17%

1059-5131 (6190)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.