Will Matan Kahana be the next Speaker of the Knesset?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$205.5

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,290

Combined PnL-$72.82

No10 traders

Total Value$194.05

Total Shares2,208

Combined PnL-$132.68

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA cashy	Yesavg 92.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$72.82	0% 0-42 (42)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$69.3	$79.2	+$9.9	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 13.6¢	$76.16	$44.63	-$31.52	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 18.5¢	$66.68	$28.87	-$37.81	27% 104-283 (387)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 12.3¢	$9.97	$23.6	+$13.64	41% 3115-4481 (7596)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 7.9¢	$7.09	$7.2	+$0.11	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$36	$4.8	-$31.2	53% 5656-5081 (10737)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 99¢	$28.56	$2.31	-$26.25	29% 882-2138 (3020)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$17.69	$1.81	-$15.88	17% 66-330 (396)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$9.61	$0.99	-$8.62	79% 375-99 (474)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$5.68	$0.64	-$5.04	37% 3197-5378 (8575)

cashy

Yes

Invested

$1,195.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$72.82

Record

0-42 (42)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$69.3

Value

$79.2

PnL

+$9.9

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$76.16

Value

$44.63

PnL

-$31.52

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$66.68

Value

$28.87

PnL

-$37.81

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$13.64

Record

41%

3115-4481 (7596)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$7.09

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.11

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$31.2

Record

53%

5656-5081 (10737)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$28.56

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$26.25

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$17.69

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$15.88

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$8.62

Record

79%

375-99 (474)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$5.68

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$5.04

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.