Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $376 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$376.48
$2.37
91.2¢ → 96.9¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 91.4¢ | $182.4 | $192.46 | +$10.06 | 50% 4568-4480 (9048) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $62.67 | $72.36 | +$9.69 | 27% 909-2509 (3418) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $50.32 | $50.58 | +$0.25 | 38% 1226-1987 (3213) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $20.07 | $20.07 | +$0 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $19.3 | +$0.1 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $19.3 | +$0.5 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $20.65 | $2.42 | -$18.22 | 41% 3063-4447 (7510) |
balthazarInvested
$182.4
Value
$192.46
PnL
+$10.06
Record
50%
4568-4480 (9048)
Invested
$62.67
Value
$72.36
PnL
+$9.69
Record
27%
909-2509 (3418)
Invested
$50.32
Value
$50.58
PnL
+$0.25
Record
38%
1226-1987 (3213)
Invested
$20.07
Value
$20.07
PnL
+$0
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$19.3
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$18.22
Record
41%
3063-4447 (7510)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.