Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 3%-6%?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3

Yes83¢No17¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$596.65

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 82.8¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,214

Combined PnL+$584.03

No3 traders

Total Value$159.36

Total Shares932

Combined PnL+$12.62

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Yesavg 83.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$49.69	— 11-0 (11)
Crypto-Joe	Yesavg 86¢	$739.31	$712.08	-$27.23	— 5-14 (19)
Lucerys	Yesavg 8.3¢	$30.45	$310.6	+$285.04	36% 3549-6234 (9783)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$62.88	$90.84	+$274.16	46% 4905-5808 (10713)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 27.6¢	$139.33	$87.48	-$51.84	40% 3403-5074 (8477)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 16.7¢	$294.45	$63.46	+$64.62	39% 1073-1654 (2727)
DG DG-NO<$100	Yesavg 94.2¢	$35.2	$32.12	-$3.08	37% 397-679 (1076)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Noavg 14.3¢	$8.58	$8.42	-$0.16	19% 27-116 (143)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$0.59	$6.04	+$5.46	43% 2594-3441 (6035)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$1,534.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$49.69

Record

—

11-0 (11)

Crypto-Joe

Yes

Invested

$739.31

Value

$712.08

PnL

-$27.23

Record

—

5-14 (19)

Lucerys

Yes

Invested

$30.45

Value

$310.6

PnL

+$285.04

Record

36%

3549-6234 (9783)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.88

Value

$90.84

PnL

+$274.16

Record

46%

4905-5808 (10713)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$139.33

Value

$87.48

PnL

-$51.84

Record

40%

3403-5074 (8477)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$294.45

Value

$63.46

PnL

+$64.62

Record

39%

1073-1654 (2727)

DG-NO<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.2

Value

$32.12

PnL

-$3.08

Record

37%

397-679 (1076)

TyshaCTR<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$0.16

Record

19%

27-116 (143)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$5.46

Record

43%

2594-3441 (6035)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.3%

82.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.