Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 0%-3%?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$182.38

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 89.1¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,115

Combined PnL+$11.73

Yes3 traders

Total Value$677.25

Total Shares6,443

Combined PnL-$194.1

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Noavg 88.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$19.97	— 11-0 (11)
Crypto-Joe	Noavg 90¢	$837.68	$829.05	-$8.63	— 5-14 (19)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$731.88	$628.47	-$102.88	39% 1069-1654 (2723)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 86.2¢	$107.77	$111.38	+$3.61	29% 126-306 (432)
DG DG-NO<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$46.43	$42.94	-$3.49	37% 397-679 (1076)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$99.76	$24.96	-$68.81	40% 3363-5001 (8364)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$46.24	$23.83	-$22.42	8% 11-133 (144)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$10.44	$10.72	+$0.28	43% 2587-3438 (6025)

mrworldwide

Invested

$1,760.18

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$19.97

Record

—

11-0 (11)

Crypto-Joe

Invested

$837.68

Value

$829.05

PnL

-$8.63

Record

—

5-14 (19)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$731.88

Value

$628.47

PnL

-$102.88

Record

39%

1069-1654 (2723)

quietparcel

Invested

$107.77

Value

$111.38

PnL

+$3.61

Record

29%

126-306 (432)

DG-NO<$100

Invested

$46.43

Value

$42.94

PnL

-$3.49

Record

37%

397-679 (1076)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.76

Value

$24.96

PnL

-$68.81

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.24

Value

$23.83

PnL

-$22.42

Record

11-133 (144)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.72

PnL

+$0.28

Record

43%

2587-3438 (6025)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.