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CoinTrickYes
clazzy1CTRNoNoYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $137?
Resolved Yes. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 50%
Total Value
$100
Combined PnL
-$20.79
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$0.49
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares203
Combined PnL-$21.28
Yes — 40%No — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CoinTrick | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0.49 | 98% 3866-94 (3960) |
clazzy1CTR | Noavg 62.4¢ | $21.28 | — | -$21.28 | 64% 451-258 (709) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 18394-14718 (33112) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 709-510 (1219) |
CoinTrickInvested
$100
Value
$100
PnL
+$0.49
Record
98%
3866-94 (3960)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$21.28
Value
—
PnL
-$21.28
Record
64%
451-258 (709)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
CI
cigarettes<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
18394-14718 (33112)
HI
hithitfarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
709-510 (1219)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x076effd3...17b15f
Slug
will-marriott-mar-q3-worldwide-revpar-be-above-20261008120123000-137