Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $90 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$89.56

Combined PnL

-$198.17

Smart Money Entry

1.6¢ → 0.4¢

-78% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$89.56

Total Shares17,911

Combined PnL-$198.17

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$169.19	$54.14	-$115.05	2% 8-427 (435)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$40.11	$12.84	-$27.27	58% 725-518 (1243)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$24.37	$7.8	-$16.57	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$13.53	$4.33	-$9.2	39% 3638-5769 (9407)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$7.5	$2.4	-$5.1	30% 243-579 (822)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.94	$1.9	-$4.04	39% 1087-1669 (2756)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$4.61	$1.48	-$3.14	18% 853-3922 (4775)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$13.27	$1.21	-$9.97	43% 5073-6616 (11689)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$3.22	$1.03	-$2.19	34% 275-525 (800)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.97	$0.95	-$2.02	24% 39-122 (161)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.56	$0.66	-$1.87	27% 691-1911 (2602)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.41	$0.45	-$0.96	26% 8-23 (31)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.75	$0.24	-$0.51	40% 29-44 (73)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.41	$0.13	-$0.28	45% 38-47 (85)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$169.19

Value

$54.14

PnL

-$115.05

Record

8-427 (435)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.11

Value

$12.84

PnL

-$27.27

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.37

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$16.57

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.53

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$9.2

Record

39%

3638-5769 (9407)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$5.1

Record

30%

243-579 (822)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.94

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$4.04

Record

39%

1087-1669 (2756)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.61

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$3.14

Record

18%

853-3922 (4775)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.27

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$9.97

Record

43%

5073-6616 (11689)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.22

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$2.19

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$2.02

Record

24%

39-122 (161)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$1.87

Record

27%

691-1911 (2602)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.96

Record

26%

8-23 (31)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.51

Record

40%

29-44 (73)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.28

Record

45%

38-47 (85)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.