Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2030
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$34.14
45.8¢ → 57¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR Crock95 | Noavg 45.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$36.69 | 56% 249-192 (441) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $499.58 | $481.34 | -$8.2 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $265.9 | $257.52 | -$8.54 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.5¢ | $223.59 | $223.82 | +$0.33 | |
ME melonmanmCTR | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $247.78 | $251.03 | +$3.26 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 47.5¢ | $190 | $186 | -$4 | 56% 15236-11760 (26996) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 47.8¢ | $50.97 | $29.22 | -$1.8 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
Invested
$1,730.31
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$36.69
Record
56%
249-192 (441)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$499.58
Value
$481.34
PnL
-$8.2
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Both legs:
Invested
$247.78
Value
$251.03
PnL
+$3.26
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$190
Value
$186
PnL
-$4
Record
56%
15236-11760 (26996)
Invested
$50.97
Value
$29.22
PnL
-$1.8
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.