Will Marguerite Humeau win the Turner Prize 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 73¢ · $451 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$450.98
$98.47
71.5¢ → 73.1¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $100.94 | $169.54 | +$68.6 | — 7-2 (9) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 71¢ | $135.17 | $153.54 | +$18.37 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $87.89 | $83.12 | -$4.77 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 76.7¢ | $213.44 | $26.94 | +$13.25 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.1¢ | $14.83 | $17.84 | +$3.01 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
Invested
$100.94
Value
$169.54
PnL
+$68.6
Record
—
7-2 (9)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$135.17
Value
$153.54
PnL
+$18.37
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100Invested
$87.89
Value
$83.12
PnL
-$4.77
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
Invested
$213.44
Value
$26.94
PnL
+$13.25
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$14.83
Value
$17.84
PnL
+$3.01
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.