Will Marco Rubio be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.5K
$17.91
95.3¢ → 93.8¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
212h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 95.9¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | -$69.09 | 77% 1388-406 (1794) |
AV aviato | Noavg 93.1¢ | $705.23 | $660.45 | +$3.55 | 85% 2422-443 (2865) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $46.8 | $46.55 | +$0 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $19.13 | $18.87 | -$0.26 | 77% 11134-3396 (14530) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $21.43 | $7.79 | +$83.7 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
Invested
$2,898.62
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$69.09
Record
77%
1388-406 (1794)
Invested
$705.23
Value
$660.45
PnL
+$3.55
Record
85%
2422-443 (2865)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$46.8
Value
$46.55
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
Invested
$19.13
Value
$18.87
PnL
-$0.26
Record
77%
11134-3396 (14530)
Invested
$21.43
Value
$7.79
PnL
+$83.7
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.