Will Marco Rubio be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $235 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$235.15
$7.68
82.8¢ → 86.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $92.23 | $96.56 | +$4.33 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $93.02 | $95.68 | +$2.66 | 16% 10-54 (64) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $34.21 | $34.82 | +$0.6 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $6.8 | $6.92 | +$0.12 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $1.21 | $1.18 | -$0.03 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
Invested
$92.23
Value
$96.56
PnL
+$4.33
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$93.02
Value
$95.68
PnL
+$2.66
Record
16%
10-54 (64)
Invested
$34.21
Value
$34.82
PnL
+$0.6
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
$6.92
PnL
+$0.12
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$1.21
Value
$1.18
PnL
-$0.03
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.