Will Manchester City finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$36.79
51.9¢ → 53.8¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $878.87 | $913.06 | +$34.19 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $68.67 | $69.67 | +$1.01 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $40.61 | $43.75 | +$3.13 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.1¢ | $28.05 | $25.92 | -$2.13 | |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $216.21 | $52.49 | +$2.67 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
AU auros2<$100 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $35.79 | $36.5 | +$0.7 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
KL klli27<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $32.37 | $26.75 | -$0.77 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
Invested
$878.87
Value
$913.06
PnL
+$34.19
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
Invested
$68.67
Value
$69.67
PnL
+$1.01
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Both legs:
HaradwaithInvested
$216.21
Value
$52.49
PnL
+$2.67
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$35.79
Value
$36.5
PnL
+$0.7
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Invested
$32.37
Value
$26.75
PnL
-$0.77
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.