Will Manchester City finish in the top 5 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.6K
$613.21
31.8¢ → 51¢
+60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
587h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justtryingtosurvive | Noavg 34.8¢ | $504.12 | $754.11 | +$235.5 | — 4-0 (4) |
 probability | Noavg 18.4¢ | $126.26 | $456.53 | +$330.27 | 41% 1345-1906 (3251) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 46¢ | $351.66 | $278.56 | +$41.43 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
DR DreamwireCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $61.96 | $68.95 | +$6.99 | 83% 2496-515 (3011) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $14.18 | $13.21 | -$0.97 | 42% 135-186 (321) |
Invested
$504.12
Value
$754.11
PnL
+$235.5
Record
—
4-0 (4)
probabilityInvested
$126.26
Value
$456.53
PnL
+$330.27
Record
41%
1345-1906 (3251)
Invested
$351.66
Value
$278.56
PnL
+$41.43
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
Invested
$61.96
Value
$68.95
PnL
+$6.99
Record
83%
2496-515 (3011)
Invested
$14.18
Value
$13.21
PnL
-$0.97
Record
42%
135-186 (321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.