Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $781 held · ends Jul 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$780.74
$165.52
66.5¢ → 89¢
+34% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $506.13 | $688.86 | +$182.73 | — 4-15 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $65.07 | $70.6 | +$5.53 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $44.02 | $21.28 | -$22.74 | 16% 10-51 (61) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.