Will Madison Huang be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $396 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$396.18
-$53.5
88.4¢ → 79¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 92¢ | $184 | $154 | -$30 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 91¢ | $181.99 | $153.99 | -$28 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $37.72 | $35.42 | -$2.3 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $26.54 | $32.67 | +$6.12 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $18.51 | $19.33 | +$0.82 | 66% 4130-2158 (6288) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $0.91 | $0.77 | -$0.14 | 13% 25-175 (200) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$184
Value
$154
PnL
-$30
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
Tenebrus7Invested
$181.99
Value
$153.99
PnL
-$28
Record
0%
0-41 (41)
Invested
$37.72
Value
$35.42
PnL
-$2.3
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
Invested
$26.54
Value
$32.67
PnL
+$6.12
Record
41%
3127-4493 (7620)
Invested
$18.51
Value
$19.33
PnL
+$0.82
Record
66%
4130-2158 (6288)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$0.14
Record
13%
25-175 (200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.