Will Lyon finish first in UEL league phase?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $401 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$401.35

Combined PnL

$157.73

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$346.75

Total Shares365

Combined PnL+$10.61

Yes9 traders

Total Value$54.6

Total Shares1,141

Combined PnL+$147.12

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DavidShekel	Noavg 90.5¢	$161.6	$180.5	+$18.91	38% 656-1061 (1717)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.7¢	$164.9	$118.75	-$5.85	58% 15821-11502 (27323)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$47.5	-$2.45	53% 23719-20885 (44604)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$20	+$11.08	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.5	$17.74	-$8.27	50% 924-909 (1833)
HA haveagooddayCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$194.62	$6.75	+$137.12	47% 3836-4297 (8133)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$3.55	+$3.52	27% 2536-6889 (9425)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.73	$2.5	+$2.2	17% 1350-6561 (7911)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$2.28	+$1.42	61% 863-547 (1410)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$1	+$0.98	16% 387-1970 (2357)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.75	-$0.35	49% 6577-6937 (13514)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 576-1486 (2062)

DavidShekel

Invested

$161.6

Value

$180.5

PnL

+$18.91

Record

38%

656-1061 (1717)

graynotebook19

Invested

$164.9

Value

$118.75

PnL

-$5.85

Record

58%

15821-11502 (27323)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$47.5

PnL

-$2.45

Record

53%

23719-20885 (44604)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$20

PnL

+$11.08

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

$17.74

PnL

-$8.27

Record

50%

924-909 (1833)

haveagooddayCTR

Yes

Invested

$194.62

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$137.12

Record

47%

3836-4297 (8133)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$3.52

Record

27%

2536-6889 (9425)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$2.2

Record

17%

1350-6561 (7911)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$1.42

Record

61%

863-547 (1410)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

PnL

+$0.98

Record

16%

387-1970 (2357)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

6577-6937 (13514)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

576-1486 (2062)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.