Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $94 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$94.33
-$152.58
2.7¢ → 0.6¢
-78% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $68.44 | $68.58 | +$0.15 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $15.93 | $11.57 | -$33.03 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $113.59 | $7.5 | -$106.09 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $16.94 | $6.68 | -$13.6 | 74% 2792-1003 (3795) |
Invested
$68.44
Value
$68.58
PnL
+$0.15
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$15.93
Value
$11.57
PnL
-$33.03
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$113.59
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$106.09
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$16.94
Value
$6.68
PnL
-$13.6
Record
74%
2792-1003 (3795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.