Will Lisa Su be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $336 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$335.64
-$20.85
87.8¢ → 94.9¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $137.7 | $141.6 | +$3.9 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $66 | $79.89 | +$13.89 | 13% 26-177 (203) |
 SteveTheFishCTR | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $106.93 | $69.2 | -$37.73 | — |
 HoshinoAI<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $70.89 | $33.2 | +$0.53 | 42% 13-18 (31) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $12.56 | $11.16 | -$1.4 | 48% 1229-1315 (2544) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.64 | $0.6 | -$0.04 | 41% 3158-4508 (7666) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$137.7
Value
$141.6
PnL
+$3.9
Record
0%
0-41 (41)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$66
Value
$79.89
PnL
+$13.89
Record
13%
26-177 (203)
SteveTheFishCTRInvested
$106.93
Value
$69.2
PnL
-$37.73
Record
—
HoshinoAI<$100Invested
$70.89
Value
$33.2
PnL
+$0.53
Record
42%
13-18 (31)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$12.56
Value
$11.16
PnL
-$1.4
Record
48%
1229-1315 (2544)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.04
Record
41%
3158-4508 (7666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.