Back to Markets
NoNo
balthazarCTR<$100YesYesYesYesYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Lisa McClain be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?
Resolved No. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 71%
Total Value
$37.24
Combined PnL
-$103.53
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$37.24
Total Shares37
Combined PnL-$1.06
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,817
Combined PnL-$102.47
No — 38%Yes — 62%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $30 | +$0.03 | 26% 118-337 (455) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $7.24 | $7.24 | +$0 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $85.56 | — | -$85.56 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $13.7 | — | -$13.7 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | — | -$0.03 | 40% 1475-2199 (3674) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $11.01 | — | -$2.54 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.63 | — | -$0.63 | — 3-14 (17) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $29.99 | — | -$1.1 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
GO
godblessme2026<$100Invested
$29.97
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.03
Record
26%
118-337 (455)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
$7.24
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$85.56
Value
—
PnL
-$85.56
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$13.7
Value
—
PnL
-$13.7
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
HA
haveagooddayCTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
—
PnL
-$0.03
Record
40%
1475-2199 (3674)
GO
god83743894CTR<$100Invested
$11.01
Value
—
PnL
-$2.54
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
GI
GingerMcKennaCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
—
PnL
-$0.63
Record
—
3-14 (17)
SM
smallreceipt<$100Invested
$29.99
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
Chat
Market Info
Condition ID
0x61b27fb7...a53fe9
Slug
will-lisa-mcclain-be-the-first-house-minority-leader-after-the-2026-midterms