Will Linda Gorton win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$1.3K
72.8¢ → 83¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yes | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$1.3K | 55% 447-366 (813) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 72.3¢ | $288.09 | $310.67 | +$18.6 | 53% 1116-997 (2113) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 74.7¢ | $298.09 | $196.35 | +$3.59 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 74.7¢ | $142.77 | $149.04 | -$14.98 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 23¢ | $51.91 | $47.3 | +$18.57 | |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 76.2¢ | $55.62 | $54.51 | -$1.05 | 23% 290-994 (1284) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 24.8¢ | $0.52 | $0.48 | -$0.04 | 52% 4949-4565 (9514) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$1,298.85
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
55%
447-366 (813)
Invested
$288.09
Value
$310.67
PnL
+$18.6
Record
53%
1116-997 (2113)
Invested
$298.09
Value
$196.35
PnL
+$3.59
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
Both legs:
Istaroth<$100Invested
$55.62
Value
$54.51
PnL
-$1.05
Record
23%
290-994 (1284)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.04
Record
52%
4949-4565 (9514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.