Will Lin Yi-feng win the next Tainan Mayor election?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$286.47
-$18.71
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $119.56 | $119.82 | +$0.27 | 31% 1085-2425 (3510) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $57.08 | $52.26 | -$4.82 | 35% 3830-6996 (10826) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.94 | -$0.02 | 33% 286-585 (871) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $39.96 | $39.94 | -$0.02 | 38% 289-472 (761) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $24.07 | $24.07 | +$0 | 53% 7213-6305 (13518) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $69.93 | $9.99 | -$1.7 | 28% 3241-8219 (11460) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $108.87 | $0.27 | -$8.61 | 39% 3708-5917 (9625) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $3.05 | $0.14 | -$2.91 | 43% 5134-6831 (11965) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.94 | $0.04 | -$0.89 | 36% 268-480 (748) |
Invested
$119.56
Value
$119.82
PnL
+$0.27
Record
31%
1085-2425 (3510)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$57.08
Value
$52.26
PnL
-$4.82
Record
35%
3830-6996 (10826)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
33%
286-585 (871)
Invested
$39.96
Value
$39.94
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
289-472 (761)
Invested
$24.07
Value
$24.07
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7213-6305 (13518)
Invested
$69.93
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$1.7
Record
28%
3241-8219 (11460)
Invested
$108.87
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$8.61
Record
39%
3708-5917 (9625)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$2.91
Record
43%
5134-6831 (11965)
Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.89
Record
36%
268-480 (748)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.