Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$92.19

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 98.1¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,086

Combined PnL+$4.46

Yes5 traders

Total Value$389.15

Total Shares16,215

Combined PnL-$96.65

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

802h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 97.7¢	$992.22	$990.99	-$1.23	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
DO donthackme	Noavg 97.8¢	$529.92	$528.72	-$1.2	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$393.12	$324.44	-$68.68	41% 2019-2860 (4879)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 95.6¢	$156.84	$160.06	+$3.23	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 95.4¢	$124.04	$126.88	+$2.84	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$80.61	$80.79	+$0.18	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$67.81	$67.73	-$0.08	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$53.71	$54.4	+$0.69	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
saintaphextwinCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$52.96	$36.32	-$16.65	38% 404-659 (1063)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$30.6	$30.64	+$0.03	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$11.31	$15.65	+$1.08	49% 6204-6345 (12549)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yes	$8.54	$8.54	-$10.3	24% 111-350 (461)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$6.3	$4.2	-$2.1	42% 1516-2129 (3645)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$992.22

Value

$990.99

PnL

-$1.23

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

donthackme

Invested

$529.92

Value

$528.72

PnL

-$1.2

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$393.12

Value

$324.44

PnL

-$68.68

Record

41%

2019-2860 (4879)

smallreceipt

Invested

$156.84

Value

$160.06

PnL

+$3.23

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

godblessme2026

Invested

$124.04

Value

$126.88

PnL

+$2.84

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

korda77<$100

Invested

$80.61

Value

$80.79

PnL

+$0.18

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$67.81

Value

$67.73

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$53.71

Value

$54.4

PnL

+$0.69

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

saintaphextwinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.96

Value

$36.32

PnL

-$16.65

Record

38%

404-659 (1063)

merod<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

$30.64

PnL

+$0.03

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.31

Value

$15.65

PnL

+$1.08

Record

49%

6204-6345 (12549)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.54

PnL

-$10.3

Record

24%

111-350 (461)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$2.1

Record

42%

1516-2129 (3645)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

802h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.