Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
$384.28
65.7¢ → 78.5¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.1K | $1.8K | +$45.76 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $964.58 | $1.3K | +$318.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $825.26 | $526.68 | -$273.19 | |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 63.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$217.48 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 67.2¢ | $934.76 | $1.1K | +$149.44 | 68% 318-150 (468) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 73.4¢ | $176.21 | $197.45 | +$4.58 | 77% 11055-3381 (14436) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 67¢ | $92.1 | $104.88 | +$12.78 | 73% 2903-1056 (3959) |
Invested
$2,058.76
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$45.76
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
Both legs:
XieGuangKunInvested
$1,025.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$217.48
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
alanhuttonInvested
$934.76
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$149.44
Record
68%
318-150 (468)
Invested
$176.21
Value
$197.45
PnL
+$4.58
Record
77%
11055-3381 (14436)
Tenebrus7Invested
$92.1
Value
$104.88
PnL
+$12.78
Record
73%
2903-1056 (3959)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.