Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lens finish first in UCL league phase?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.49

Combined PnL

-$16.9

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.49

Total Shares744

Combined PnL-$16.9

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.11	$0.59	-$6.86	47% 47634-54192 (101826)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.4	$0.4	-$4.71	37% 16946-29328 (46274)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.49	$0.18	-$2.1	21% 629-2353 (2982)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.91	$0.1	-$1.17	16% 1414-7633 (9047)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.05	$0.06	-$0.75	25% 692-2068 (2760)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.04	-$0.03	15% 5007-29404 (34411)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.35	$0.04	-$0.45	23% 2596-8901 (11497)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.18	$0.04	-$0.44	22% 3475-12090 (15565)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$0.4	32% 21924-45779 (67703)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$6.86

Record

47%

47634-54192 (101826)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$4.71

Record

37%

16946-29328 (46274)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$2.1

Record

21%

629-2353 (2982)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.17

Record

16%

1414-7633 (9047)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.75

Record

25%

692-2068 (2760)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

15%

5007-29404 (34411)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.45

Record

23%

2596-8901 (11497)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.44

Record

22%

3475-12090 (15565)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.4

Record

32%

21924-45779 (67703)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.