Will Lee Zeldin be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 90¢ · $58 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$58.43
-$0.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
78h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.9 | $27 | -$0.9 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $29.45 | $10.48 | +$0.97 | — 8-9 (17) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $9.53 | $9.23 | -$0.31 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $7.44 | $7.2 | -$0.24 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $3.64 | $3.31 | -$0.33 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.26 | $1.22 | -$0.04 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
Invested
$27.9
Value
$27
PnL
-$0.9
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$29.45
Value
$10.48
PnL
+$0.97
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$9.53
Value
$9.23
PnL
-$0.31
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.44
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0.24
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$3.31
PnL
-$0.33
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.22
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.