Will Lecce win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends May 29, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, May 29, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$42.74

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 99.9¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,164

Combined PnL+$43.59

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares215

Combined PnL-$0.85

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
probability	Noavg 97.3¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	+$43.62	41% 1361-1919 (3280)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.09	$21.06	-$0.03	52% 4968-4609 (9577)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.19	$0.24	+$0.05	57% 13799-10572 (24371)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.2	$0.23	-$0.97	36% 15586-27535 (43121)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.13	$0.17	+$0.04	53% 6553-5771 (12324)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	+$0.04	50% 1654-1640 (3294)

probability

Invested

$1,669.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$43.62

Record

41%

1361-1919 (3280)

korda77<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$21.06

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

4968-4609 (9577)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

13799-10572 (24371)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.97

Record

36%

15586-27535 (43121)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

6553-5771 (12324)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

1654-1640 (3294)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.