Will Laos win Eurovision Asia 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $179 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$179.43

Combined PnL

-$36.92

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$169.96

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$0.61

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.47

Total Shares1,114

Combined PnL-$37.53

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.1¢	$100.53	$101.15	+$0.61	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.91	+$0.21	27% 973-2599 (3572)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.79	$29.91	+$0.12	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$4.97	$4.99	+$0.02	37% 165-281 (446)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$31.23	$4.38	-$23.9	66% 75-38 (113)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$15.49	$4.21	-$11.28	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$20.22	$4.01	-$0.35	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$2.62	$0.71	-$1.91	30% 108-251 (359)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.61	$0.17	-$0.44	42% 2607-3596 (6203)

cigarettes

Invested

$100.53

Value

$101.15

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0.21

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0.12

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.23

Value

$4.38

PnL

-$23.9

Record

66%

75-38 (113)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.49

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$11.28

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$20.22

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.35

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.62

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.91

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.44

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.