Will Lance Oppenheim win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $357 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$356.75

Combined PnL

$0.17

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 90.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$323.15

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$1.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$33.6

Total Shares356

Combined PnL+$1.38

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 91¢	$121.44	$120.87	-$0.57	39% 1397-2152 (3549)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91¢	$72.8	$72.44	-$0.36	52% 5301-4808 (10109)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91¢	$43.86	$43.67	-$0.19	35% 2886-5323 (8209)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$40.64	$40.77	+$0.14	28% 826-2133 (2959)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$30.95	$32.5	+$1.55	0% 0-30 (30)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 91¢	$31.91	$31.76	-$0.16	— 0-13 (13)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 91¢	$13.7	$13.64	-$0.06	28% 2424-6147 (8571)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$1.27	$1.11	-$0.16	40% 3002-4411 (7413)

haveagoodday

Invested

$121.44

Value

$120.87

PnL

-$0.57

Record

39%

1397-2152 (3549)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$72.8

Value

$72.44

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

5301-4808 (10109)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.86

Value

$43.67

PnL

-$0.19

Record

35%

2886-5323 (8209)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$40.64

Value

$40.77

PnL

+$0.14

Record

28%

826-2133 (2959)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.95

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$1.55

Record

0-30 (30)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$31.91

Value

$31.76

PnL

-$0.16

Record

—

0-13 (13)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

$13.64

PnL

-$0.06

Record

28%

2424-6147 (8571)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.16

Record

40%

3002-4411 (7413)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.