Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$34.73

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 99.9¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,732

Combined PnL+$11.01

Yes5 traders

Total Value$71.46

Total Shares893

Combined PnL+$23.72

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

802h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 88.6¢	$493.16	$508.12	+$14.96	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
probability	Noavg 96¢	$373.44	$357.88	-$15.56	42% 1516-2129 (3645)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 89¢	$331.22	$342.39	+$11.16	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 89¢	$218.15	$225.4	+$7.25	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
Istaroth	Noavg 99¢	$208	$200	-$8	14% 461-2758 (3219)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$35.55	$24	-$11.55	55% 3145-2528 (5673)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$10.17	$20.09	-$12.06	50% 2435-2398 (4833)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$18.4	-$0.6	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yes	$16	$16	-$3.94	51% 250-245 (495)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 96¢	$12.46	$11.94	-$0.52	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$93.09	$10.5	+$51.8	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$7.72	$6.55	+$2.31	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.4	$0.86	-$0.54	77% 12312-3779 (16091)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$493.16

Value

$508.12

PnL

+$14.96

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

probability

Invested

$373.44

Value

$357.88

PnL

-$15.56

Record

42%

1516-2129 (3645)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$331.22

Value

$342.39

PnL

+$11.16

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

godblessme2026

Invested

$218.15

Value

$225.4

PnL

+$7.25

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

Istaroth

Invested

$208

Value

$200

PnL

-$8

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.55

Value

$24

PnL

-$11.55

Record

55%

3145-2528 (5673)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.17

Value

$20.09

PnL

-$12.06

Record

50%

2435-2398 (4833)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$16

PnL

-$3.94

Record

51%

250-245 (495)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$12.46

Value

$11.94

PnL

-$0.52

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.09

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$51.8

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$2.31

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.54

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

802h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.