Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Konsta Helenius win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $361 held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$360.56
$142.24
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
57h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northstockCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $33.95 | $165.63 | -$7.29 | 39% 259-407 (666) |
CR crckrCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $31.84 | $164.87 | +$133.03 | 28% 797-2091 (2888) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $2.62 | $19.72 | +$17.1 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100 | Yes | $6.05 | $6.05 | -$0.35 | 39% 7026-11132 (18158) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | $4.29 | $4.29 | -$0.25 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
Invested
$33.95
Value
$165.63
PnL
-$7.29
Record
39%
259-407 (666)
Invested
$31.84
Value
$164.87
PnL
+$133.03
Record
28%
797-2091 (2888)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$19.72
PnL
+$17.1
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$6.05
PnL
-$0.35
Record
39%
7026-11132 (18158)
Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.29
PnL
-$0.25
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.