Will Knight win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$247.01

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 90.3¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,234

Combined PnL-$340.81

Yes5 traders

Total Value$347.72

Total Shares3,159

Combined PnL+$93.8

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 90¢	$4.2K	$2.0K	-$166.9	13% 603-4221 (4824)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 85¢	$1.4K	$824.94	-$159.75	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$205.34	$190.83	+$30.23	40% 6684-10176 (16860)
AnjunCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$75.82	$128.04	+$51.28	55% 5255-4341 (9596)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 89.8¢	$122.39	$107.93	-$1.19	16% 408-2125 (2533)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$61.67	$61.39	-$0.28	27% 659-1763 (2422)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$78.12	$59.82	-$8.3	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 89¢	$44.67	$40.8	+$0.5	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
SP SPLPB<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$73.6	$16.08	-$4.81	24% 806-2607 (3413)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$14.65	$14.07	-$0.58	51% 327-314 (641)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.73	$12.6	+$10.87	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9.01	$9.04	+$0.03	37% 3313-5705 (9018)
dips.<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$4.34	$4.25	-$0.09	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$3.09	$3.07	-$0.02	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.18	$2.18	+$2	22% 1839-6343 (8182)

Istaroth

Invested

$4,204.34

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$166.9

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,388.36

Value

$824.94

PnL

-$159.75

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.34

Value

$190.83

PnL

+$30.23

Record

40%

6684-10176 (16860)

AnjunCTR

Yes

Invested

$75.82

Value

$128.04

PnL

+$51.28

Record

55%

5255-4341 (9596)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$122.39

Value

$107.93

PnL

-$1.19

Record

16%

408-2125 (2533)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$61.67

Value

$61.39

PnL

-$0.28

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$78.12

Value

$59.82

PnL

-$8.3

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$44.67

Value

$40.8

PnL

+$0.5

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

SPLPB<$100

Invested

$73.6

Value

$16.08

PnL

-$4.81

Record

24%

806-2607 (3413)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.65

Value

$14.07

PnL

-$0.58

Record

51%

327-314 (641)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$10.87

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$9.01

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

dips.<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.09

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$2

Record

22%

1839-6343 (8182)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.7%

90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.