Will KlingAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $124 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$124.11
$3.78
96.3¢ → 95.7¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $62.92 | $62.96 | +$0.05 | 50% 9031-9106 (18137) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $19.75 | $21.82 | +$2.08 | 18% 4051-18946 (22997) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $19.5 | $19.04 | -$0.46 | 56% 18332-14683 (33015) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $9.94 | $9.52 | -$0.42 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $6.26 | $8.86 | +$2.61 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $1.98 | $1.9 | -$0.07 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
Invested
$62.92
Value
$62.96
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
9031-9106 (18137)
2B9S<$100Invested
$19.75
Value
$21.82
PnL
+$2.08
Record
18%
4051-18946 (22997)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$19.04
PnL
-$0.46
Record
56%
18332-14683 (33015)
Invested
$9.94
Value
$9.52
PnL
-$0.42
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
Invested
$6.26
Value
$8.86
PnL
+$2.61
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.07
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.