Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 14¢ · $614 held · ends Feb 8, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$614.47
$114.12
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 perfectnostalgiaCTR | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $213.5 | $261.3 | +$47.8 | — 0-4 (4) |
 balthazar | Noavg 83¢ | $129.9 | $103.14 | +$8.35 | 47% 4825-5517 (10342) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 60.6¢ | $122.23 | $65.66 | +$42.14 | 40% 3254-4905 (8159) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $62.55 | $61.12 | -$1.43 | 25% 93-281 (374) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $59.99 | $60.98 | +$1 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $97.08 | $48.82 | +$19.46 | 37% 3468-5986 (9454) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $24.99 | $7.34 | -$0.64 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $8.67 | $6.1 | -$2.57 | 30% 2961-6990 (9951) |
perfectnostalgiaCTRInvested
$213.5
Value
$261.3
PnL
+$47.8
Record
—
0-4 (4)
balthazarInvested
$129.9
Value
$103.14
PnL
+$8.35
Record
47%
4825-5517 (10342)
Invested
$122.23
Value
$65.66
PnL
+$42.14
Record
40%
3254-4905 (8159)
Invested
$62.55
Value
$61.12
PnL
-$1.43
Record
25%
93-281 (374)
Invested
$59.99
Value
$60.98
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$97.08
Value
$48.82
PnL
+$19.46
Record
37%
3468-5986 (9454)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$7.34
PnL
-$0.64
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
Invested
$8.67
Value
$6.1
PnL
-$2.57
Record
30%
2961-6990 (9951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.