Will Kira Freije win the Turner Prize 2026?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 70¢ · $379 held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$379.2

Combined PnL

$41.04

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 69.5¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$323.18

Total Shares465

Combined PnL+$46.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$56.02

Total Shares111

Combined PnL-$5.42

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

708h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 59¢	$79.18	$93.28	+$14.09	4% 17-463 (480)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 60¢	$61.14	$70.82	+$9.68	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$58.1	$65.26	+$7.16	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 58¢	$43.5	$52.12	+$8.62	11% 35-270 (305)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 58¢	$34.8	$41.7	+$6.9	31% 163-361 (524)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$44.44	$40.77	-$3.67	— 0-10 (10)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$17	$15.25	-$1.75	— 4-15 (19)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$79.18

Value

$93.28

PnL

+$14.09

Record

17-463 (480)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$61.14

Value

$70.82

PnL

+$9.68

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$58.1

Value

$65.26

PnL

+$7.16

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$43.5

Value

$52.12

PnL

+$8.62

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

$41.7

PnL

+$6.9

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.44

Value

$40.77

PnL

-$3.67

Record

—

0-10 (10)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$15.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

—

4-15 (19)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

708h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.