Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kino win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Nov 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.58

Combined PnL

-$3.85

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.58

Total Shares746

Combined PnL-$3.85

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.2	$0.98	+$0.78	55% 5488-4528 (10016)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.14	$0.38	+$0.23	21% 572-2206 (2778)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.52	$0.34	-$0.67	43% 18531-24185 (42716)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.15	$0.34	-$0.66	25% 683-2044 (2727)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.43	$0.19	-$0.24	32% 21174-45399 (66573)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.07	$0.11	-$0.2	29% 3584-8767 (12351)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.06	$0.07	-$1.99	46% 6636-7775 (14411)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.07	-$0.13	50% 65525-65845 (131370)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$0.05	+$0.01	22% 3396-11845 (15241)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.67	$0.03	-$0.64	22% 1864-6615 (8479)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$50	$0.03	-$0.35	26% 593-1675 (2268)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.78

Record

55%

5488-4528 (10016)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.23

Record

21%

572-2206 (2778)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.67

Record

43%

18531-24185 (42716)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.66

Record

25%

683-2044 (2727)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.24

Record

32%

21174-45399 (66573)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.2

Record

29%

3584-8767 (12351)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.99

Record

46%

6636-7775 (14411)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

65525-65845 (131370)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

22%

3396-11845 (15241)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.64

Record

22%

1864-6615 (8479)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.35

Record

26%

593-1675 (2268)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.