Will "King Arthur: Legend of the Sword" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $267 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$266.8

Combined PnL

-$36.15

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$265.92

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$0.53

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.88

Total Shares587

Combined PnL-$36.68

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.8¢	$160.82	$160.98	+$0.15	39% 327-521 (848)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$49.93	-$0.02	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	36% 332-601 (933)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$19.57	$19.97	+$0.4	52% 202-190 (392)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.07	$5.07	-$0	58% 864-619 (1483)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$30.9	$0.35	-$11.54	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$8.99	$0.28	-$8.7	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$163.39	$0.24	-$14.59	26% 55-157 (212)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$35.08	$0.01	-$1.85	35% 3905-7251 (11156)

god83743894

Invested

$160.82

Value

$160.98

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

332-601 (933)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Invested

$19.57

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

202-190 (392)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.9

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$11.54

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.99

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$8.7

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.39

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$14.59

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.85

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.