Will "King Arthur: Legend of the Sword" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$110.26

Combined PnL

-$13.27

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$108.88

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$0.18

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.38

Total Shares252

Combined PnL-$13.1

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$30.42	$30.3	-$0.12	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.97	+$0.06	36% 263-468 (731)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.81	$29.68	-$0.13	35% 290-535 (825)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.99	+$0.05	42% 1635-2289 (3924)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.98	$6.95	-$0.03	31% 1057-2405 (3462)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2	$1.99	-$0.01	57% 747-553 (1300)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$8.63	$1.04	-$7.58	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$71.63	$0.23	-$4.73	27% 1031-2734 (3765)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.89	$0.11	-$0.79	43% 5103-6732 (11835)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.42

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

36%

263-468 (731)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.81

Value

$29.68

PnL

-$0.13

Record

35%

290-535 (825)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$6.98

Value

$6.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

31%

1057-2405 (3462)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.63

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$7.58

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.63

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$4.73

Record

27%

1031-2734 (3765)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.79

Record

43%

5103-6732 (11835)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.