Will Kim Kataguiri be the next President of Brazil's Chamber of Deputies?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $92 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$92.27
$1
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $58 | $57.24 | -$0.76 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.17 | $18.85 | +$0.68 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $8.57 | $8.13 | -$0.44 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $5.09 | $5.01 | -$0.08 | 79% 394-105 (499) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.45 | $3.04 | +$1.59 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
Invested
$58
Value
$57.24
PnL
-$0.76
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$18.17
Value
$18.85
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$8.57
Value
$8.13
PnL
-$0.44
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$0.08
Record
79%
394-105 (499)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.45
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$1.59
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.