Will Kiin win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 84¢ · $333 held · ends Nov 29

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$333.17

Combined PnL

$162.42

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 83.6¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$260

Total Shares312

Combined PnL-$1.4

Yes2 traders

Total Value$73.17

Total Shares432

Combined PnL+$163.82

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$62.52	$62.64	+$0.12	27% 3479-9270 (12749)
Lucerys	Noavg 89¢	$102.79	$59.43	-$0.39	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$50.19	$49.89	-$0.3	50% 355-348 (703)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.49	$38.08	+$33.59	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
dips.<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$35.51	$35.78	+$0.26	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$17.02	$35.09	+$130.24	41% 3602-5114 (8716)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$21.89	$21.35	-$0.54	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$10	$9.88	-$0.12	32% 21161-45384 (66545)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$8.68	$8.47	-$0.21	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$8.45	$8.32	-$0.13	34% 3942-7559 (11501)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$4.33	$4.23	-$0.1	43% 5541-7239 (12780)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$62.52

Value

$62.64

PnL

+$0.12

Record

27%

3479-9270 (12749)

Lucerys

Invested

$102.79

Value

$59.43

PnL

-$0.39

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Invested

$50.19

Value

$49.89

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.49

Value

$38.08

PnL

+$33.59

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

dips.<$100

Invested

$35.51

Value

$35.78

PnL

+$0.26

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.02

Value

$35.09

PnL

+$130.24

Record

41%

3602-5114 (8716)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$21.89

Value

$21.35

PnL

-$0.54

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

32%

21161-45384 (66545)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.68

Value

$8.47

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$0.13

Record

34%

3942-7559 (11501)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

5541-7239 (12780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.3%

83.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.