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7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $197 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$197.48
-$38.26
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.92 | $84.92 | +$0 | 36% 332-601 (933) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.91 | -$0.03 | 31% 1122-2474 (3596) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $61.87 | $20.3 | -$11.56 | 38% 3808-6231 (10039) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.37 | $15.37 | -$0.01 | 50% 919-925 (1844) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.56 | $6.13 | -$1.4 | 38% 317-524 (841) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.09 | $5.09 | +$0 | 58% 864-619 (1483) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.07 | $5.07 | -$0 | 47% 887-1007 (1894) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $69.61 | $0.39 | -$14.69 | 26% 55-157 (212) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $8.99 | $0.28 | -$8.7 | 42% 5212-7125 (12337) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $35.11 | $0.01 | -$1.87 | 35% 3905-7251 (11156) |
Invested
$84.92
Value
$84.92
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
332-601 (933)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
31%
1122-2474 (3596)
Invested
$61.87
Value
$20.3
PnL
-$11.56
Record
38%
3808-6231 (10039)
Invested
$15.37
Value
$15.37
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
919-925 (1844)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$6.13
PnL
-$1.4
Record
38%
317-524 (841)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
864-619 (1483)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
887-1007 (1894)
Invested
$69.61
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$14.69
Record
26%
55-157 (212)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.99
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$8.7
Record
42%
5212-7125 (12337)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$35.11
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.87
Record
35%
3905-7251 (11156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
smallreceipt
No — $84.92
mildwindow27
No — $59.91
xtxpleasecallme
No — $20.3
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $15.37
quietparcel
No — $6.13
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $5.09
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.07
donthackme
CTRYes — $0.39
balthazar
CTRYes — $0.28
Lucerys
CTRYes — $0.01