Will "Kidnapped in Her Own Home: The Martha Carelli Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$141.69

Combined PnL

-$2.71

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$135.14

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$4.3

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.55

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$1.59

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.88	$39.68	-$0.2	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.89	$28.2	-$1.69	34% 276-525 (801)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.85	-$0.11	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.92	-$0.06	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$9.93	$9.4	-$0.53	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.4	-$0.57	35% 251-467 (718)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.4	-$0.58	30% 1043-2403 (3446)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.85	$9.29	-$0.56	30% 243-579 (822)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$2.18	$2.88	+$0.7	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.89	$2.49	+$0.6	27% 1021-2711 (3732)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.89	$1.18	+$0.29	43% 5075-6626 (11701)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$39.68

PnL

-$0.2

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.89

Value

$28.2

PnL

-$1.69

Record

34%

276-525 (801)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.06

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.53

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.57

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.58

Record

30%

1043-2403 (3446)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.56

Record

30%

243-579 (822)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.7

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$0.6

Record

27%

1021-2711 (3732)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.29

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.