Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2027 Ballon d'Or?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $26 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$25.98
$6.79
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
62h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GD gdime27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.6 | $16 | +$5 | 48% 225-245 (470) |
NO northstockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $1.07 | $8 | +$1.71 | 39% 259-407 (666) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yes | $1.2 | $1.2 | +$0 | 44% 13945-17925 (31870) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.4 | $0.4 | +$0 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.38 | $0.38 | +$0.08 | 25% 521-1567 (2088) |
Invested
$1.6
Value
$16
PnL
+$5
Record
48%
225-245 (470)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$8
PnL
+$1.71
Record
39%
259-407 (666)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
13945-17925 (31870)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.38
PnL
+$0.08
Record
25%
521-1567 (2088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.