Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Kevin Hern be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
No 57%
$78
-$103.38
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.95 | $30 | +$0.05 | 27% 949-2550 (3499) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.95 | $30 | +$0.05 | 25% 92-281 (373) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $9.21 | $9.21 | +$0 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $8.77 | $8.79 | +$0.02 | 26% 871-2505 (3376) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $85.56 | — | -$85.56 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $17.43 | — | -$13.7 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.63 | — | -$0.63 | — 3-14 (17) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $68.76 | — | -$2.51 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 100¢ | $29.99 | — | -$1.1 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
Invested
$29.95
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.05
Record
27%
949-2550 (3499)
Invested
$29.95
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.05
Record
25%
92-281 (373)
Invested
$9.21
Value
$9.21
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
Invested
$8.77
Value
$8.79
PnL
+$0.02
Record
26%
871-2505 (3376)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$85.56
Value
—
PnL
-$85.56
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
Invested
$17.43
Value
—
PnL
-$13.7
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
Invested
$0.63
Value
—
PnL
-$0.63
Record
—
3-14 (17)
Invested
$68.76
Value
—
PnL
-$2.51
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
Invested
$29.99
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
17%
93-449 (542)