Will Kevin Davis win the 2026 Brantford—Brant South by-election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 75¢ · $97 held · ends Dec 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$97.42
-$2.58
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $40.38 | $40.5 | +$0.12 | 41% 3010-4415 (7425) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $22.5 | +$0 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $14.62 | $11.92 | -$2.7 | — 8-9 (17) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $7.5 | +$0 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
Invested
$40.38
Value
$40.5
PnL
+$0.12
Record
41%
3010-4415 (7425)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
balthazar<$100Invested
$15
Value
$15
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$14.62
Value
$11.92
PnL
-$2.7
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.