Will Keria win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 29

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$192.78

Combined PnL

-$70.23

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 96¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$150.08

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$85.46

Yes6 traders

Total Value$42.69

Total Shares703

Combined PnL+$15.23

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 97.7¢	$109.82	$65.82	-$1.03	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 91.7¢	$421.11	$42.31	-$84.05	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$15.54	$29.53	+$9.99	55% 5255-4341 (9596)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$17.98	$17.67	-$0.31	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96¢	$12.5	$12.49	-$0.01	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.76	$9.68	-$0.08	37% 3313-5705 (9018)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.88	$5.32	+$4.44	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$3.76	$3.9	+$0.14	51% 327-314 (641)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$3.04	$3.33	+$0	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$17.19	$2.12	+$0.03	22% 1839-6343 (8182)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.07	$0.33	+$0.27	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.07	$0.29	+$0.39	30% 3461-8203 (11664)

Lucerys

Invested

$109.82

Value

$65.82

PnL

-$1.03

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$421.11

Value

$42.31

PnL

-$84.05

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.54

Value

$29.53

PnL

+$9.99

Record

55%

5255-4341 (9596)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.98

Value

$17.67

PnL

-$0.31

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$0.08

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$4.44

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

327-314 (641)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$17.19

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

22%

1839-6343 (8182)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.27

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.39

Record

30%

3461-8203 (11664)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.