Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist for 2026?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$1.4K
-$55.35
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
4901h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $614.05 | $614.23 | +$0.18 | 43% 3133-4188 (7321) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $336.62 | $336.9 | +$0.28 | 44% 6482-8172 (14654) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.9¢ | $200.5 | $200.5 | -$0 | 42% 3180-4317 (7497) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.92 | +$0 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $69.93 | $69.93 | +$0 | 49% 8853-9359 (18212) |
RA rated | Noavg 99.4¢ | $166.37 | $62.94 | -$51.93 | 29% 2904-7032 (9936) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.42 | $23.42 | -$0 | 77% 12312-3779 (16091) |
CR cry.eth2<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $31.79 | $21.29 | -$0.89 | 40% 9714-14610 (24324) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.9¢ | $243.98 | $19.98 | +$0.04 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
WO wokerjoesleeper | Noavg 99.3¢ | $420.27 | $2.66 | +$0.01 | 33% 6464-13327 (19791) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $3.05 | $0.32 | -$2.73 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.42 | $0.1 | -$0.31 | 18% 4284-20059 (24343) |
Invested
$614.05
Value
$614.23
PnL
+$0.18
Record
43%
3133-4188 (7321)
Invested
$336.62
Value
$336.9
PnL
+$0.28
Record
44%
6482-8172 (14654)
Invested
$200.5
Value
$200.5
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
3180-4317 (7497)
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.92
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
Invested
$69.93
Value
$69.93
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
8853-9359 (18212)
Invested
$166.37
Value
$62.94
PnL
-$51.93
Record
29%
2904-7032 (9936)
Invested
$23.42
Value
$23.42
PnL
-$0
Record
77%
12312-3779 (16091)
Invested
$31.79
Value
$21.29
PnL
-$0.89
Record
40%
9714-14610 (24324)
Invested
$243.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.04
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$420.27
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$0.01
Record
33%
6464-13327 (19791)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$2.73
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.31
Record
18%
4284-20059 (24343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.