Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$343.59

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 61.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,875

Combined PnL-$344.04

No6 traders

Total Value$431.59

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL+$0.44

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

765h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
macrosteaks	Yesavg 54.9¢	$375.06	$657.56	-$199.41	55% 3330-2764 (6094)
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 63¢	$630	$510	-$120	56% 982-781 (1763)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 40.2¢	$395.66	$276.94	-$4.45	35% 17355-32033 (49388)
AN anciano	Yesavg 57.1¢	$243.28	$217.14	-$26.14	52% 1168-1072 (2240)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 53.3¢	$195.97	$192.61	-$0.14	16% 417-2220 (2637)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.3¢	$102.66	$119.42	+$16.47
└ No leg	Noavg 46.6¢	$89.81	$73.19	-$16.61
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$88.2	$98	+$9.8	54% 21850-18953 (40803)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yesavg 47.2¢	$81.42	$61.22	+$17.42	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$47.73	$31.82	-$15.91	50% 1237-1250 (2487)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$34.05	$31.28	-$2.77	48% 9199-10116 (19315)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 43.1¢	$16.82	$14.83	-$1.99	72% 12562-4974 (17536)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$9.98	$9.82	-$0.16	79% 11628-3057 (14685)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$0.71	$0.72	+$0.01	29% 356-869 (1225)

macrosteaks

Yes

Invested

$375.06

Value

$657.56

PnL

-$199.41

Record

55%

3330-2764 (6094)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$630

Value

$510

PnL

-$120

Record

56%

982-781 (1763)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$395.66

Value

$276.94

PnL

-$4.45

Record

35%

17355-32033 (49388)

anciano

Yes

Invested

$243.28

Value

$217.14

PnL

-$26.14

Record

52%

1168-1072 (2240)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$195.97

Value

$192.61

PnL

-$0.14

Record

16%

417-2220 (2637)

Both legs:

Yes$102.6653.3¢+$16.47

No$89.8146.6¢-$16.61

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$88.2

Value

$98

PnL

+$9.8

Record

54%

21850-18953 (40803)

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.42

Value

$61.22

PnL

+$17.42

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.73

Value

$31.82

PnL

-$15.91

Record

50%

1237-1250 (2487)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$34.05

Value

$31.28

PnL

-$2.77

Record

48%

9199-10116 (19315)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$16.82

Value

$14.83

PnL

-$1.99

Record

72%

12562-4974 (17536)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.16

Record

79%

11628-3057 (14685)

klli27CTR<$100

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.01

Record

29%

356-869 (1225)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

765h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.