Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $49 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$48.52

Combined PnL

-$0.79

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$48.3

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$0.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$0.16

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$29.74	$29.21	-$0.53	18% 54-241 (295)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$10.18	$9.98	-$0.2	11% 44-371 (415)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$7.97	$7.79	-$0.18	37% 3085-5357 (8442)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.36	$1.32	-$0.03	79% 286-77 (363)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.07	$0.22	+$0.16	41% 3084-4451 (7535)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.74

Value

$29.21

PnL

-$0.53

Record

18%

54-241 (295)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$10.18

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.2

Record

11%

44-371 (415)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$7.97

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$0.18

Record

37%

3085-5357 (8442)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.03

Record

79%

286-77 (363)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.16

Record

41%

3084-4451 (7535)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.