Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 72¢ · $293 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$293.33
$16.47
65.2¢ → 72¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 64.1¢ | $182.86 | $196.93 | +$14.06 | — 5-1 (6) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $68.64 | $70.93 | +$2.29 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $13.8 | $14.2 | +$0.4 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $7 | $5.8 | -$1.2 | 10% 3-27 (30) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $4.54 | $5.47 | +$0.92 | 54% 565-475 (1040) |
viniiInvested
$182.86
Value
$196.93
PnL
+$14.06
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$68.64
Value
$70.93
PnL
+$2.29
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$14.2
PnL
+$0.4
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
Invested
$7
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$1.2
Record
10%
3-27 (30)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.92
Record
54%
565-475 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.