Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$70.5

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 76.5¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,154

Combined PnL+$61.98

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.01

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$8.51

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 64.3¢	$1.0K	$952	+$60.51	36% 14860-26974 (41834)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$155.54	$154	-$0.95	27% 281-776 (1057)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.6¢	$111.82	$114.73	+$2.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$43.12	$39.27	-$3.85
ME merod<$100	Noavg 73¢	$44.53	$45.45	+$0.91	52% 2425-2216 (4641)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 73¢	$27.29	$27.86	+$0.56	52% 4918-4516 (9434)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$5.49	$14.01	+$8.51	61% 203-131 (334)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,015.89

Value

$952

PnL

+$60.51

Record

36%

14860-26974 (41834)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$155.54

Value

$154

PnL

-$0.95

Record

27%

281-776 (1057)

Both legs:

No$111.8272.6¢+$2.9

Yes$43.1228¢-$3.85

merod<$100

Invested

$44.53

Value

$45.45

PnL

+$0.91

Record

52%

2425-2216 (4641)

korda77<$100

Invested

$27.29

Value

$27.86

PnL

+$0.56

Record

52%

4918-4516 (9434)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.49

Value

$14.01

PnL

+$8.51

Record

61%

203-131 (334)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.